2015 trade development environment analysis-HIENCE

In 2015, the international environment facing the development of China's foreign trade may be slightly improved, but the recovery rate is limited, risks and uncertainties are more prominent; the domestic environment is generally stable, but the economy downward pressure still exists.

From an international perspective, the basic trend of a moderate recovery in the world economy is established, the slow recovery in economic growth. US labor market, the financial markets continues to improve, the economy has entered a steady growth path. The possibility of the outbreak of systemic risk eurozone economy declined, with the monetary policy easing intensified, the economy will achieve slow growth. Japanese consumption tax hike waning influence, but not optimistic about the effect of structural reforms, the economy will achieve a slight increase. Overall economic growth in emerging economies is still faster than the developed countries, the ability to respond to economic shocks has improved. IMF expects the world economy in 2015 will grow by 3.8 percent, the growth rate increased 0.5 percentage points higher than in 2014. WTO expects 2015 global trade will grow by 4 percent, the growth rate increased 0.9 percentage points higher than in 2014. UNCTAD expects 2015 global cross-border investment will expand the size of the $ 1.6 trillion in 2014 to $ 1.7 trillion. But the subsequent impact of the financial crisis still exists, highlighting the deep-seated structural contradictions, developed macroeconomic policy differentiation, rising trade protectionism momentum, exacerbating hotspots geopolitical conflict, will become a major source of risk to economic fluctuations.

First, the strength of the recovery of the world economy is still weak.Slow growth in the world economy adjustment phase, before the growth momentum has been significantly reduced as compared with the crisis. The real estate market is far from developed economies to restore prosperity, there are prospects for the development of new industries is a big uncertainty, the consumer and the lack of new investment hot spot, especially on further rise in government debt, fiscal policy space is extremely limited, weak demand issue become permanent. Major developed economies, the United States income disparities sustainable economic growth in the euro zone deflationary pressure, Japan's economic structural reform faces obstacles. Emerging economies, structural contradiction, some single national industrial structure, over-reliance on the export of energy resources, energy resources, international market prices fell seriously affected; some countries twin fiscal and current account deficits outstanding ability to withstand the impact of a weaker capital outflows , fiscal consolidation, economic restructuring will inevitably affect economic growth in the short term. From a global perspective, technological innovation limited role in boosting the economy, labor productivity growth is slowing down the potential, low potential growth rate of the global economy.

Second, the US monetary policy adjustments have broad implications.With the US economy on a steady recovery track, the labor market close to normal levels before the crisis, the Federal Reserve has a complete end to quantitative easing monetary policy. Widely expected, the Fed rate hike cycle will enter the year 2015. United States return to normal monetary policy will help to prevent the accumulation of inflationary pressures and asset bubbles, is to adapt to the inevitable economic recovery initiatives, but its spillover effects will attract short-term capital flows, the United States, pushing up interest rates in global financial markets. Weak growth in other developed economies, the next will take loose monetary policy support, which will offset the effect of easing some extent, inhibit economic growth. Some foreign exchange reserves less fiscal and current account "twin deficits" of the emerging economies are facing the impact of capital outflows, may form a new round of financial turmoil, the impact of the economic and financial stability.

Third, trade protectionism has not been effectively suppressed. Despite some improvement in world economic growth, but high unemployment in many countries, the developed countries pay more attention to the development of the real economy, emerging economies, and vigorously promote the industrialization process, the international market more competitive. Some countries adopt trade protectionist measures to support domestic industries, the conservative attitude of the market open, global trade friction is still high, the multilateral trading system suffered a new setback. According to WTO statistics, since the financial crisis, the G20 members introduced trade restrictions, about 80% still being implemented, affecting about 4% of global imports. Although the WTO agreement reached in Bali package by the end of 2013, but due to the negative attitude of some members, delays in the implementation of the agreement, the Doha Round in trouble again. This is in stark contrast to the signing of the FTA set off the trend among major economies in recent years, trade and investment liberalization FTA between members in-depth development of economic globalization provides important new impetus. However, some may lead to the formation of a free trade agreement between the different members of the WTO relatively closed trade group, have a negative impact on the crowding-out effect and other countries and regions outside the agreement.

Fourth, geopolitical conflict risks to the global economy. September, the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement Ukrainian conflict, signs of improvement in the situation, in October Russia has taken a number of initiatives to ease the crisis in Ukraine. But Ukraine crisis stems from the geopolitical conflicts in the Eurasian region for a long time, the future development there are still large uncertainties, may affect the relevant national economic and trade exchanges in the longer term. Continued turmoil in the Middle East, "Islamic State" and other extremist groups to stir up trouble in Iraq and other countries, threatening stability in the region, if further expanding, and may threaten global oil supply security.

Domestically, China's economic fundamentals have not changed for the better long-term. Industrialization, information technology, urbanization, agricultural modernization further promote the creation of new consumption and investment demand, form a strong support for economic growth. Industrial structure, regional structure, income distribution structure to further improve and enhance the economic growth potential. Comprehensively deepen reform steadily, "reform dividend" gradually released, will stimulate innovation and economic development vitality power the majority of economic agents. In particular, China has actively promoted the expansion of open a new round of reform and opening up free trade experience Shanghai achieved the test area will be extended to other regions or even the country, the economic zone and maritime Silk Road Silk Road strategy into the implementation phase, especially for Chinese economy foreign trade and economic growth and create new space. State Council promulgated the support steady growth in foreign trade, import and other policy measures to further strengthen the implementation, help maintain steady growth in foreign trade. But China's industrial overcapacity, financing your business financing, the rapid rise in labor costs and other conflicts intertwined, it is difficult to resolve in the short term, it will play the economy, especially investment growth inhibition.

Overall, in 2015 China's foreign trade development of international and domestic environment basically stable, but still faces enormous pressure and challenges. Highlighted in three areas:

First, external demand is difficult to have rebounded significantly. Slow growth of the world economy, the international market demand growth is limited, increasing uncertainties and destabilizing factors, the risk should not be underestimated. Recently, the world's leading economic indicators have weakened. September, the global manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 52.2, for three consecutive months of decline, in which the United States, Japan slight pullback, the euro zone fell to the lowest since June 2013, the HSBC Emerging Markets Index is still well prepared below the historical average. Even if global trade growth in 2015 is expected to reach 4% of the WTO, is still far below the past 20 years, the average growth rate of 5.3%. At the same time, countries generally to expand exports as an important tool for economic recovery to take various measures to support export development, an increasingly competitive international market. Chinese exports accounted for international market share reached 11.8%, with its own scale, stability and increase international market share increasing difficulty.

Second, China's foreign trade competitive advantage "lean." Rapidly rising labor costs in China in recent years, with an average annual increase of more than 10%, the coastal export industries labor costs generally equivalent to 2-3 times or more neighboring countries, labor-intensive export industries competitive shrinking, manufacturing foreign investment continued to decline, export orders and capacity for rapid transfer to the neighboring countries, not only the textile and clothing products decreased in developed market share, and low-end mechanical and electrical products to the developed markets also began to lag behind export growth partially surrounding countries facing market share encroaching danger. The rapid development of China's equipment manufacturing and other emerging industries, but inexperienced enterprises to explore the international market, to support the export of related products and taxation, monetary policy is still not perfect, it is difficult to get full export potential. In addition, cross-border e-commerce and other new trade development faces many obstacles, the degree of trade facilitation needs to be further improved.

Third, trade friction situation remains severe and complicated. In the context of the resurgence of international trade protectionism against Chinese products, increasing trade friction. Three quarters of 2014, a total of 21 countries (regions) for Chinese exports remedy investigations initiated 75 onwards, an increase of 17%, and many of them rubbing against Chinese strategic emerging industries, and a large amount of money involved, the formation of China's foreign trade to upgrade shock. Some developed countries continue to strengthen trade enforcement, relax filing standards, tightened rules antidumping and countervailing duty investigations, often ruled China's export enterprises with higher anti-dumping and countervailing duty. Emerging economies, the economic slowdown, the manufacturing sector in some countries in trouble, to protect domestic industries voices rise, leading to China's trade friction tends to increase. The first three quarters, the number and amount of trade remedy cases against Chinese products in developing countries are more than developed countries.

Faced with a complex situation of foreign trade development, the Chinese government will further implement policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade growth and the strengthening of imports, to cultivate new competitive advantages in foreign trade, to further improve the level of trade facilitation, improving the financial and banking services to effectively deal with trade friction, enhance trade development potential. Forced role in the market, in a series of policy measures to promote the country's foreign trade development guidance and support, many import and export enterprises to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading, and actively optimize the product structure, market structure and explore new trade, carry out foreign investment to expand the international marketing network, enhance the status of the global value chain, a number of independent innovation capability of enterprises and new niche products are emerging to become a new force driving the development of foreign trade, and promote China's foreign trade in 2015 to maintain steady growth.